Hoosier fans, are you ready for a rollercoaster? The preseason KenPom rankings are out, and they paint a potentially bumpy picture for Indiana basketball as they head into the 2025-26 season. While there's excitement surrounding the new era under Coach Darian DeVries, the numbers suggest we might need to temper expectations, at least initially.
KenPom.com, the highly respected college basketball analytics site, has placed Indiana at No. 40 nationally in its preseason rankings. And this is the part most people miss: within the always-competitive Big Ten Conference, that ranking puts them at 11th place. That's right, 11th!
To put that in perspective, last season the Hoosiers began at No. 39 in KenPom's preseason assessment. However, they ultimately dipped to No. 45 by season's end and, crucially, missed the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive year under former coach Mike Woodson. Following Woodson's departure at the end of the 2024-25 campaign, Darian DeVries was brought in to steer the program in a new direction. But can he turn the ship around quickly enough to exceed these projections? That's the million-dollar question.
Here's a look at how the rest of the Big Ten stacks up according to KenPom:
- Purdue (No. 3)
- Illinois (No. 6)
- UCLA (No. 10)
- Michigan (No. 11)
- Wisconsin (No. 20)
- USC (No. 22)
- Michigan State (No. 25)
- Ohio State (No. 27)
- Maryland (No. 34)
- Oregon (No. 37)
- Indiana (No. 40)
- Washington (No. 45)
- Iowa (No. 46)
- Nebraska (No. 51)
- Northwestern (No. 57)
- Minnesota (No. 73)
- Rutgers (No. 85)
- Penn State (No. 95)
Now, let's dig a little deeper into what's driving these rankings. KenPom's system isn't just pulling numbers out of thin air. It's based on a complex algorithm that evaluates team efficiency on both ends of the court. According to Pomeroy's preseason analysis, Indiana is projected to be relatively strong offensively, ranking No. 35 nationally in offensive efficiency. However, their defensive efficiency is pegged at No. 41. This suggests that while the Hoosiers might be able to score points, they could struggle to consistently stop their opponents. But here's where it gets controversial... are these defensive projections unfairly influenced by last year's performance, or is there a genuine concern about the team's ability to defend this season?
Based on these ratings, KenPom projects Indiana to finish the regular season with an 18-13 overall record and a 10-10 mark in Big Ten play. That would likely put them on the bubble for an NCAA Tournament berth. It's important to remember that these are just preseason projections. A lot can change between now and March.
Looking ahead at the schedule, Indiana faces some tough non-conference opponents, including Kentucky (No. 4), Louisville (No. 14), Marquette (No. 47), Kansas State (No. 61), and Incarnate Word (No. 174). These games will provide early tests for the Hoosiers and give us a better sense of where they truly stand.
(Photo credit: IU Athletics)
So, what do you think, Hoosier Nation? Are these KenPom projections too pessimistic? Can Coach DeVries and the team exceed expectations and make a run at the NCAA Tournament? Or are we in for another season of nail-biting finishes and tournament anxiety? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! And this is the part most people miss... are we undervaluing the 'new coach' bump? Could DeVries' fresh perspective and system give the Hoosiers an unexpected advantage that the numbers simply can't predict?
